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 > coronavirus...put it into perspective

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larry cad


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Posted: 03/23/20 04:25am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Here is another perspective:

The US has a population of about 327 million people. As of today there is approximately 26,000 people with diagnosed COVID 19. That means there is one confirmed case out of every 12,000+ people. Even if the the number of undiagnosed carriers is 10 times greater than than the number of confirmed cases it still means that less than one out of every thousand people are infected.
It is very likely that the death rate will fall as testing becomes more widespread. Currently, testing is only being done on those with symptoms and is focused on the severely ill (which is the correct action, since the severely ill need intensive care and the symptomatic need to isolate themselves completely). But as we increase the denominator of virus positive individuals through expanded testing, the fatality rate will decline.
One of the best things that can happen is there to be a large population of infected people who had no symptoms and subsequently recovered. They are what will create a herd immunity and eventually stop the spread of the disease. It is the same as setting back fires to control wildfires. Just like back fires create areas that cannot burn, asymptomatic people who have recovered create large areas where there is no one left to get sick and spread the disease. There is anecdotal evidence this is already occurring, but there is really no way to know since it is impractical, and probably unwise, to test large numbers of people who show no outward signs of the virus.
Hopefully our government leaders will be able to manage the tightrope walk between illness prevention and the economy. The last thing we want is the economic damage to continue far past the health impacts of the virus. In the long run that could cause far more harm, both physically and mentally than the virus.

Certainly one of the best written posts on this thread! One thing concerns me and that is the comment about "herd immunity". Some evidence indicates this virus may not be subject to immunity. Not saying it is, just saying "might be". That could lead to long term problems. Hopefully it is proven to be inaccurate.

Today is my personal best for most consecutive days alive.

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Posted: 03/23/20 05:54am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

free radical wrote:

WTP-GC wrote:

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")

Chine is the king of misinformation. State run media, health care, completely communist society...yet we are to believe what they’re saying? Much of China is on some form of lockdown/quarantine/whatever...but they are reporting that their factories are operating at nearly full capacity. Huh??? How is that possible? Well...they lie!!

That doesnt make any sense
Why would China leaders need to lie?

All workers wear protective masks and avoid physical contact,easy to do imo.
Tesla China factory runs just like that even now.

Did you know that China has the largest number of Billionares in the world!
Seems like their style o Comunism isnt all that bad.

China health care may not be perfect but with population of 1.4 bilion
Its doing ok and Everyone is covered

Actually, you're wrong. Just for fun, I looked up the matter of most billionaires. All the top results on Google show that the USA has the most...followed by China. An article from Business Insider ranks it 705 to 285 (USA vs. China). I would say that's not even close. But since being a billionaire is something that probably none of us can relate to, let's look at millionaires. The same website says it 18,614,000 to 4,447,000 (USA vs. China). So yes, Communism of any style (including China) is BAD!!!

People in China have long wore masks because of horrific air pollution, not because of their fear of spreading infectious diseases. They wear masks in factories because of the terrible conditions they work in.

Again, China LIES!! As I said before, they are the king of misinformation. They are the kings of counterfit goods, and shamelessly so. We all know they are manipulators of currency worldwide. The state controls EVERYTHING about their daily lives, normal routines, news distribution, healthcare, etc. I'm not saying that they haven't taken positive steps to combat this virus or that they aren't working with other countries to try and eradicate it...but anything that comes out of their mouths has to be taken with a grain of salt. We've already seen where some sources leaked information that the Chinese government was lying about "actual" data. They've even been criticized for what they didn't tell their own people in the early stages of this virus. So...we need to work with them, but complete trust is totally out of the picture.

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Kamloops, BC, Canada

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Posted: 03/23/20 05:55am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

fj12ryder wrote:

StirCrazy wrote:

you do realize that with no precautions taken that the projection is 10 million deaths in the US alone with in about 5-6 months. social distancing, isolations and other measures can drop that number down to 100000.

You do realize that what you've just written is total speculation and FUD. With no actual basis in reality. You can find someone to support any theory that is floated, but "It Ain't Necessarily So".

Just calm down, and don't spread FUD, like that. If you're sick, stay home, self-medicate. If you're not sick, stay home and self-medicate. The only difference is which drug you're using to medicate yourself. [emoticon]

actually those numbers are from a statistical generator, ya there just numbers but they are pretty accurate, that's why we use them. at any rate if it is 10 mill, 20 mill or 5 mill it shows the effect that taking precautions can have.


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Posted: 03/23/20 07:54am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Bionic Man wrote:

None of those can be mitigated by any action. COVID19 can.

I suppose other people have pointed out how foolish that comment is, but I will point it out, too. Almost every one of those major causes of death can be mitigated by some action, like diet and exercise in several of them. At least we don't shut down society until people eat right and exercise regularly. People die. New ones take their place. Nobody gets out alive.


Eugene, OR

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Posted: 03/23/20 08:15am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

goducks10 wrote:

Twq different approaches.
Not hard to figure out which one works.

Excellent article. Numbers I read for the Spanish flu worldwide deaths was between 50-100 million. I don't think they can ever know the real numbers, but their huge.

Retired Anesthetist. LTP. Pilot with mechanic/inspection ratings. Between rigs right now.. Wife and daughter. Four cats which we must obey.


Broken Arrow OK

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Posted: 03/23/20 08:50am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2oldman wrote:

rexlion wrote:

A proper calculation of mortality rate is: total dead divided by total population.
That's one way. Another is to compare the dead to those infected, and that's where the numbers go way up.
I'm sorry, but this is simply a fallacy put over on the public by the media so they can throw out higher, more scary stats.

Here's proof.
From Wikipedia:
"Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time."

"The mortality rate is calculated by taking all the deaths that occurred during a particular time period and dividing that number by the total size of the population during the same time frame."

From Encyclopedia Britannica:
"mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the population at risk during a certain time frame."

There, I've listed 4 good references which show the proper way to figure it, as it has been accepted scientifically and mathematically for many years. If we cannot stick to known facts but re-define facts on the fly to suit ourselves (as the MSM has done), we cannot communicate accurately. The media re-defines "mortality rate" and other terms on a frequent basis, so they can move the goalposts and frighten people into doing what is desired.

Mike G.
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Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. --Benjamin Franklin
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Dixie --- N. Georgia

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Posted: 03/23/20 09:06am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I wonder where the information came from in the original post? Surely not some facebook research is it?



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Posted: 03/23/20 09:39am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Here's a little perspective between the US and Italy.

Italy has 118,000+ sq miles
60M people

If you took Oregon and moved it's southern border down to near Redding CA and then took the populations of CA, WA, NY and Oregon you'd have Italy.
No wonder they're deaths and infections are skyrocketing.
60M people crammed into a small country.
IIRC Italy disregarded other countries guidelines and held a 200,000 crowd event followed by a 100,000 spectator bull fight event.
Days after the chit hit the fan.

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Posted: 03/23/20 09:40am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

So, I’m not a prepper, not paranoid, not a doctor either, but What I recognize is the reaction by authorities has to be tailored to the lowest common IQ denominators of society. There’s a lot of dumb people out there who don’t understand germs from granola or virus from violets. And an equal number who a “smarter” than everyone else or don’t care. (Think inner city ranks...Ill leave it at that.).
There are also areas of great population density where the spread of disease is 100fold compared to living in the sticks.
Add all that up and you can see pretty easily why these “over reaching” mandates as some think they are, are needed as they are actually protecting “us” from “ourselves.”

Classic example, stop at a C store yesterday while running errands, for a drink. Could I have waited until I got home? Sure, but Not the point.
I have an iced tea and not really wanting the clerk to touch it, I attempt to hold it for him to scan. He actually takes it from me to scan and then holds his hand over the pop top.
Not a malicious move, but just unaware.

"Yes Sir, Oct 10 1888, Those poor school children froze to death in their tracks. They did not even find them until Spring. Especially hard hit were the ones who had to trek uphill to school both ways, with no shoes." -Bert A.

Bionic Man


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Posted: 03/23/20 09:54am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

DallasSteve wrote:

Bionic Man wrote:

None of those can be mitigated by any action. COVID19 can.

I suppose other people have pointed out how foolish that comment is, but I will point it out, too. Almost every one of those major causes of death can be mitigated by some action, like diet and exercise in several of them. At least we don't shut down society until people eat right and exercise regularly. People die. New ones take their place. Nobody gets out alive.

Which of those diseases can be mitigated by two to four weeks of inactivity?

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