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 > Should/will Glacier, Teton and Yellowstone open?

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westernrvparkowner

montana

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Posted: 04/05/20 09:31am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Lantley wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

time2roll wrote:

I say skip the season and leave the national parks closed. This is non essential IMO. If you are bored this Summer it would be a good time to volunteer your assistance as needed in your local community.
Easy to say, no very easy to do. My losses will be in the multiple hundreds of thousands. If you add in the probable loss of equity due to the fact that future buyers must take into account it is possible to lose an entire year of business my true loss will likely be in the millions. Basically my life's work is hanging in the balance. Forgive me if the though of having a "free summer to volunteer" doesn't make everything rosy.

It's not ones life's work that's in the balance, It's actual lives that are in the balance. There is a difference.
And in the end there will be no actual proof that any lives were actually saved. There will only be competing statistical models based entirely on assumptions. There is no guarantee that a vaccine or treatment will ever be perfected. It is entirely possible that the steps being taken to "Flatten the curve" may prolong the time the virus actually circulates in the population perhaps allowing it to mutate into an even deadlier form. It may have been a better policy to maximize isolation of those most vulnerable to having life threatening complications and let the virus sweep thru the rest of the population creating a herd immunity, thus thwarting the virus. We will never know for sure if the steps taken saved lives or cost lives over the course of the virus. And if you really want to be a statistical nerd, it will be a statistical certainty that all the steps taken actually never saved a single life, since it is statistically certain every single one of us will die. To imply that extreme economic damage is without life threatening consequences is very short sighted. Poverty kills millions across the globe annually. Eventually a decision point of the economy over the virus will need to be reached. It is beyond foolish to believe that point can be set at a zero risk of additional deaths by COVID19.

Crowe

Merrimack, NH

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Posted: 04/05/20 09:40am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

And in the end there will be no actual proof that any lives were actually saved. There will only be competing statistical models based entirely on assumptions. There is no guarantee that a vaccine or treatment will ever be perfected. It is entirely possible that the steps being taken to "Flatten the curve" may prolong the time the virus actually circulates in the population perhaps allowing it to mutate into an even deadlier form. It may have been a better policy to maximize isolation of those most vulnerable to having life threatening complications and let the virus sweep thru the rest of the population creating a herd immunity, thus thwarting the virus. We will never know for sure if the steps taken saved lives or cost lives over the course of the virus. And if you really want to be a statistical nerd, it will be a statistical certainty that all the steps taken actually never saved a single life, since it is statistically certain every single one of us will die. To imply that extreme economic damage is without life threatening consequences is very short sighted. Poverty kills millions across the globe annually. Eventually a decision point of the economy over the virus will need to be reached. It is beyond foolish to believe that point can be set at a zero risk of additional deaths by COVID19.

Someone who gets it. You can never completely mitigate the risk. And those that are worried about their livelihoods have every right to do so as they are the ones who will wind up in the poverty cycle with no way out. My hunch is if we analyzed the age groups and responses it's those that are already retired that don't care if the world stops as their SSI checks will still continue to come. Guess what-if you don't have a working pool to draw from there won't be any money for you either. YOU have the choice to stay home if you are concerned but many of us don't. Everyone needs to think about the overall picture and not just their own little world.


I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be Douglas Adams

RV-less for now but our spirits are still on the open road.

Thermoguy

Graham, WA

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Posted: 04/05/20 10:37am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

In Washington State - our largest population with confirmed cases of COVID-19 is in King County - Seattle. There are 2.2 Million people living in King County - 0.13% of the people have confirmed cases of the virus. We have been staying home for 3 weeks now.

TP shortages are due to media hype. They media started showing a run on toilet paper back in late February. They showed lines of people out the door at Costco and people buying 2 or 3 large packs. When someone sees this, they run to the store and buy up a few packs so they don't get caught without. That is what started people hording water, TP, Paper Towel, food, ect. I asked a lady at Costco why the run on TP, she said, if we get stuck in our houses for a month, how do you expect me to wipe my butt...

Thermoguy

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Posted: 04/05/20 10:42am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Back to the topic - I hope the national parks are open this summer. I have reservations outside of Glacier in August.

In all honesty, I think a lot of people will be vacationing domestically this year. We might not be able to travel outside the US this summer. So, people will be looking for a place to go within the US and a park is the perfect place to practice social distancing while enjoying our great country. Much better than a beach of crowded people or amusement park where people touch everything. The chance of touching the same piece of wood or getting coughed on is much lower in the wilderness than it is in a building.

Just Wash You Hands and don't Touch Your Face.

Lantley

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Posted: 04/05/20 10:48am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Lantley wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

time2roll wrote:

I say skip the season and leave the national parks closed. This is non essential IMO. If you are bored this Summer it would be a good time to volunteer your assistance as needed in your local community.
Easy to say, no very easy to do. My losses will be in the multiple hundreds of thousands. If you add in the probable loss of equity due to the fact that future buyers must take into account it is possible to lose an entire year of business my true loss will likely be in the millions. Basically my life's work is hanging in the balance. Forgive me if the though of having a "free summer to volunteer" doesn't make everything rosy.

It's not ones life's work that's in the balance, It's actual lives that are in the balance. There is a difference.
And in the end there will be no actual proof that any lives were actually saved. There will only be competing statistical models based entirely on assumptions. There is no guarantee that a vaccine or treatment will ever be perfected. It is entirely possible that the steps being taken to "Flatten the curve" may prolong the time the virus actually circulates in the population perhaps allowing it to mutate into an even deadlier form. It may have been a better policy to maximize isolation of those most vulnerable to having life threatening complications and let the virus sweep thru the rest of the population creating a herd immunity, thus thwarting the virus. We will never know for sure if the steps taken saved lives or cost lives over the course of the virus. And if you really want to be a statistical nerd, it will be a statistical certainty that all the steps taken actually never saved a single life, since it is statistically certain every single one of us will die. To imply that extreme economic damage is without life threatening consequences is very short sighted. Poverty kills millions across the globe annually. Eventually a decision point of the economy over the virus will need to be reached. It is beyond foolish to believe that point can be set at a zero risk of additional deaths by COVID19.

So with your theory in mind let's do nothing. Open the parks, open the restaurants and let the virus run it course unimpeded.
Do you think that will allow your business to stay open and not impact your livelihood.
Do you think allowing the hospitals to be overwhelmed will be good for business? In a rural area like Montana it won't take much to exceed the hospitals ability to treat patients. If we leave things open will it be just business as usual or will people become sick at an unimpeded pace and fill hospitals with virus patients? Will people eventually get the point and stay home on there own?
Look up Albany,GA and see how they became the epicenter for the virus in their rural area. No I had never heard od Albany , GA either.
This is a real story not some imagined scenario. Yes the once healthy enough people actually died when the virus came to their little rural town.
Yes poverty kills millions across the globe. But the pandemic doesn't care about your bank account or your ability to pay.
The virus has shown celebrities are not immune. Wealth has nothing to do with it. Unimpeded the virus may come roaring into your CG's infecting you and your guest. It won't care if your in poverty or own a million dollar CG. It may infect you and force you to seek treatment at an overwhelmed hospital. Then maybe you will understand the difference between saving lives and saving livelihoods.


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westernrvparkowner

montana

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Posted: 04/05/20 11:25am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

CavemanCharlie wrote:

Tough spot to be in for everyone.

My sister who lived in Boston for many years is snow birding in Florida right now. She has,,had, a friend from Boston that has died from this thing. He was healthy and in his late 50's. He contacted it at some sort of international convention held in Boston that he went to as part of his business.

Hopefully, this all blows over by the 4th of July and then everyone can argue about how it really wasn't all that bad. But, if nothing is done and then people then die in large numbers people will still argue over how nothing was done.

This is the first time in my 56 years that I feel bad for the politicians. Dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.

There are 11800 people in my county. I figure best case 70 of them die from this. (Not so bad really). That is On Top Of what have would have died before from other things. Most likely 120 of them will die. That is the population of my town. Seems like a larger number when you put it like that.

I would not count on any large parks to open before July. Most of them will be shut all year. Minneapolis already announced that all beaches and pools are shut for the whole summer.
I think your calculations are off. In the hardest hit state, New York, there is approximately 120,000 confirmed cases with about 4100 deaths. New York state has a population of nearly 20 million, so the infection rate is less than 1% and the death rate among the confirmed infected is less than 4%. Even applying double those percentages of the most infected state to your county of 11800 Than would give you about 236 people infected out of which 9 would die. And since fatal cases are concentrated in the elderly with underlying health conditions at least a couple of those deaths would come out of the 70 who normally die each year. That makes your annual death toll in the county about 77 instead of 70. Significant to the families of the extra 7 deaths, but not an apocalyptic depopulating event.

2oldman

New Mexico

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Posted: 04/05/20 11:29am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Lantley wrote:

Look up Albany,GA and see how they became the epicenter for the virus in their rural area. No I had never heard od Albany , GA either.
They had a funeral. They hugged each other. They didn't believe the warnings.

Governor Kemp actually said within the last few days he didn't know it was transmissible without showing symptoms. He really said that. Maybe those poor funeral folks just didn't know.

The only people we should be listening to are the doctors and health professionals. Everything else is just noise.

* This post was last edited 04/05/20 03:15pm by 2oldman *   View edit history

Thermoguy

Graham, WA

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Posted: 04/05/20 12:11pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

westernrvparkowner wrote:

CavemanCharlie wrote:

Tough spot to be in for everyone.

My sister who lived in Boston for many years is snow birding in Florida right now. She has,,had, a friend from Boston that has died from this thing. He was healthy and in his late 50's. He contacted it at some sort of international convention held in Boston that he went to as part of his business.

Hopefully, this all blows over by the 4th of July and then everyone can argue about how it really wasn't all that bad. But, if nothing is done and then people then die in large numbers people will still argue over how nothing was done.

This is the first time in my 56 years that I feel bad for the politicians. Dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.

There are 11800 people in my county. I figure best case 70 of them die from this. (Not so bad really). That is On Top Of what have would have died before from other things. Most likely 120 of them will die. That is the population of my town. Seems like a larger number when you put it like that.

I would not count on any large parks to open before July. Most of them will be shut all year. Minneapolis already announced that all beaches and pools are shut for the whole summer.
I think your calculations are off. In the hardest hit state, New York, there is approximately 120,000 confirmed cases with about 4100 deaths. New York state has a population of nearly 20 million, so the infection rate is less than 1% and the death rate among the confirmed infected is less than 4%. Even applying double those percentages of the most infected state to your county of 11800 Than would give you about 236 people infected out of which 9 would die. And since fatal cases are concentrated in the elderly with underlying health conditions at least a couple of those deaths would come out of the 70 who normally die each year. That makes your annual death toll in the county about 77 instead of 70. Significant to the families of the extra 7 deaths, but not an apocalyptic depopulating event.




The numbers in bing are grossly overstated. See the actual numbers here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

New York - 67551 people infected with 2256 deaths as of noon on 4/5/2020.

This has been considered the most accurate resource for this data. Not saying it is right, but that is what I have heard for true data about CV-19.

Crowe

Merrimack, NH

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Posted: 04/05/20 12:28pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

So with your theory in mind let's do nothing. Open the parks, open the restaurants and let the virus run it course unimpeded.

That's not what either of us said but to fit your narrative you had to twist it. We only stated that this cannot go on indefinitely without dire consequences.

CavemanCharlie

Storden,MN

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Posted: 04/05/20 01:54pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

westernrvparkowner wrote:

CavemanCharlie wrote:

Tough spot to be in for everyone.

My sister who lived in Boston for many years is snow birding in Florida right now. She has,,had, a friend from Boston that has died from this thing. He was healthy and in his late 50's. He contacted it at some sort of international convention held in Boston that he went to as part of his business.

Hopefully, this all blows over by the 4th of July and then everyone can argue about how it really wasn't all that bad. But, if nothing is done and then people then die in large numbers people will still argue over how nothing was done.

This is the first time in my 56 years that I feel bad for the politicians. Dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.

There are 11800 people in my county. I figure best case 70 of them die from this. (Not so bad really). That is On Top Of what have would have died before from other things. Most likely 120 of them will die. That is the population of my town. Seems like a larger number when you put it like that.

I would not count on any large parks to open before July. Most of them will be shut all year. Minneapolis already announced that all beaches and pools are shut for the whole summer.
I think your calculations are off. In the hardest hit state, New York, there is approximately 120,000 confirmed cases with about 4100 deaths. New York state has a population of nearly 20 million, so the infection rate is less than 1% and the death rate among the confirmed infected is less than 4%. Even applying double those percentages of the most infected state to your county of 11800 Than would give you about 236 people infected out of which 9 would die. And since fatal cases are concentrated in the elderly with underlying health conditions at least a couple of those deaths would come out of the 70 who normally die each year. That makes your annual death toll in the county about 77 instead of 70. Significant to the families of the extra 7 deaths, but not an apocalyptic depopulating event.


They could indeed be off. I'm bad at math. But, lets not forget this thing is not over yet. My figuring was that in a years time 60% of my county would have gotten it. With my bad math that is 7080 people. This thing kills 1% of the people that get it. That is where I got my 71 person number. And, 3% (If the death rate gets that high) of 7080 is 212. Um, I think

Although, it does tend to kill the elderly and people with underlying conditions it doesn't always just kill them. It's kinda a weird thing. Some people hardly know they are sick and the next person gets really sick. The first person in MN to get it, and recover, was a 20 yea old. He describes it as the worst think he's ever felt and had to go though. Yet, the next person may hardly feel it at all.

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