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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Joined: 02/23/2002

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Posted: 04/16/20 02:42pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

bid_time wrote:

BCSnob wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Testing as a way to actually control the spread is a false promise.

Testing and contact tracing did work for Mers, SARS, and other infectious diseases. It may not for Covid-19 because of the higher R0 and the 1-2days of infectiousness prior to the onset of symptoms. It may still be the most humane way to open the economy.

What is your suggestion, open the economy and let “survival of the fittest (wealthiest)” control the outcome?
What's your suggestion, keep everything shut down for about 2 years until a vaccine is developed?
keep everything shut down until there is enough single use PPE to not require multiple uses and the testing and contact tracing capability is ready for the stay at home orders to be lifted.

* This post was edited 04/16/20 02:49pm by BCSnob *

westernrvparkowner

montana

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Posted: 04/16/20 02:47pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

pianotuna wrote:

tommyznr wrote:

pianotuna wrote:

Hi,

I'm all for 100% testing. So far, less than 1/2 of one percent have been tested. It appears the virus may be more contagious before symptoms appear than after.

I'd love to self test with a sputum at home. I'd love to be one of the folks who had covid 19 with a weak response.

The Province of Saskatchewan has just 95 active cases and no one in intensive care--but the Premier has just extended the state of emergency by two weeks. I am happy he did so.


Can you provide some context here?

Does state of emergency include stay at home orders etc?

Does extending by two weeks mean two weeks from now or two weeks from some magical date in the near future?

The reason I ask is that the state of emergency in the US does not include stay at home orders. I suspect the state of emergency will go on far longer than the stay at home orders. Meaning, we will start having things open up and we will be allowed to go out but we will still be under a state of emergency.

As far a 100% testing goes, someone in this thread or another went over the logistics of that, back of a napkin type calculations. It is just not feasible with the current technology.


two weeks from April 15, 2020.

It is a Provincial Order (i.e. a State), not Federal.

It allows the discretion to go out for essential items but encourages folks to shelter in place. Unnecessary travel is to be avoided.

As far as testing, more is better. Saskatchewan has done 20k tests on a population of 1 million. Far too low in my opinion. DNA tests can be done locally now and take 1 hour. But what I truly want is a way to test myself.

I hope I answered your question of context adequately.
At an hour a test, it will only take 114 years to test all of Saskatchewan.
So you get a home test. What are you going to do with the results? Granted, if you test positive you will isolate. But if you are like 99% of the population you are going to test negative. Doesn't mean you can go around and do anything you want, because it doesn't protect you from people who are infected. Even if you decided to take a personal risk, knowing you won't infect others, who is going to believe you? A stranger telling me not to worry because they tested themselves and are clean doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence, because people lie when it is in their self interest.
Contact tracing is different, and may be very useful in areas such as yours where there is very low incidents of infection. We may very well be able to isolate future outbreaks, but tracing contacts in the current areas of highest concern, such as New York and New Jersey it impossible. There is no way to track down the millions of people who may have come in contact with the 200,000+ people infected in that area. Testing sounds great on the surface, but it is of little use in stopping a pandemic that has spread this far.

fj12ryder

Platte City, MO

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Posted: 04/16/20 03:06pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

way2roll wrote:


To an already overwhelmed medical system? Yes. Exponential contraction is how contagions work and why quarantining is the proven method to slow it down. Is your thought a conspiracy that our scientists and governments want a shutdown for some political or monetary reason and not for health and safety and the ability for hospitals to keep up? And it's not just our own country, all countries are following pandemic protocol to slow the spread. Do you think this is all a hoax, that hospitals really aren't overrun and that releasing quarantines wouldn't cause a spike in cases and more deaths? And what politician would want that blood on their hands? And what workers do we allow to go back to work? Is there a hierarchy on safety or importance? Or a random percentage like a lottery? Is this by State?
There may be some concerns in some areas of the country about overwhelmed hospitals, but that is not the case in all areas. My ex-wife works at a hospital in a city of 75,000 people, and they are laying off nurses and cutting their hours. The hospital is not busy, and is in no danger of being overwhelmed. There are a couple hospitals in the area that are busy with cases, but most are simply not overwhelmed. Busy, yes, overwhelmed, no.

IMO there's it would not be wise to relax travel/exposure issues in large cities like New York, Chicago, Detroit, etc. but I don't see it being such a dangerous step in smaller communities.


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Cummins12V98

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Posted: 04/16/20 03:06pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

shelbyfv wrote:

It's beyond tin hat to think any mayor or governor wants to shut anything down for longer than they believe is needed.


Wisconsin Governor just extended lock down thru May 24.


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ExxWhy

Ohio

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Posted: 04/16/20 03:56pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

way2roll wrote:

ExxWhy wrote:

Maybe some of you don't realize that large portions of the economy are still working. It's not just a few meatpacking plants. Think about this.

About 155 million people were employed in the US just prior to the shutdown. There have been 22 million unemployment claims. Let's guess there are an equal number of self employed out. If you reject that number, we'll use your number. So 44 million out of work, that means 111 million are still working! Many are working from home. Even at that, there are still millions of people out working. Will adding some percentage of workers back into the mix really overwhelm the medical system?


To an already overwhelmed medical system? Yes. Exponential contraction is how contagions work and why quarantining is the proven method to slow it down. Is your thought a conspiracy that our scientists and governments want a shutdown for some political or monetary reason and not for health and safety and the ability for hospitals to keep up? And it's not just our own country, all countries are following pandemic protocol to slow the spread. Do you think this is all a hoax, that hospitals really aren't overrun and that releasing quarantines wouldn't cause a spike in cases and more deaths? And what politician would want that blood on their hands? And what workers do we allow to go back to work? Is there a hierarchy on safety or importance? Or a random percentage like a lottery? Is this by State?


Again I have to ask, what overwhelmed system? One of my daughters is a nurse in Raleigh at a major hospital there, it's very quiet. I have a different daughter who is a nurse at a major hospital in Cleveland. Same thing, very quiet. I don't claim to speak for all hospitals, but these examples are hardly unusual for much of the country. In fact, hospital layoffs are becoming a common story. Shall I link some for you?

Many of us are of the opinion that we (societal) are being too careful. It's not a question of some want us all to die. We just see the risk far differently based on the evidence we can see.





DallasSteve

Texas

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Posted: 04/16/20 04:08pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

bid_time wrote:

BCSnob wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Testing as a way to actually control the spread is a false promise.

Testing and contact tracing did work for Mers, SARS, and other infectious diseases. It may not for Covid-19 because of the higher R0 and the 1-2days of infectiousness prior to the onset of symptoms. It may still be the most humane way to open the economy.

What is your suggestion, open the economy and let “survival of the fittest (wealthiest)” control the outcome?
What's your suggestion, keep everything shut down for about 2 years until a vaccine is developed?
keep everything shut down until there is enough single use PPE to not require multiple uses and the testing and contact tracing capability is ready for the stay at home orders to be lifted.

After that is done my plan is to win the lottery and retire.





Lwiddis

Mono Basin National Forest Scenic Area

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Posted: 04/16/20 04:11pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

“Many of us are of the opinion that we (societal) are being too careful.“

Many? No need to buttress your opinion with multiple “us’s.” Please speak for yourself.


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bid_time

Michigan

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Posted: 04/16/20 04:11pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

bid_time wrote:

BCSnob wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Testing as a way to actually control the spread is a false promise.

Testing and contact tracing did work for Mers, SARS, and other infectious diseases. It may not for Covid-19 because of the higher R0 and the 1-2days of infectiousness prior to the onset of symptoms. It may still be the most humane way to open the economy.

What is your suggestion, open the economy and let “survival of the fittest (wealthiest)” control the outcome?
What's your suggestion, keep everything shut down for about 2 years until a vaccine is developed?
keep everything shut down until there is enough single use PPE to not require multiple uses and the testing and contact tracing capability is ready for the stay at home orders to be lifted.
What's your definition of contact tracing capability - Because it sounds to me like you are planning on living the rest of your life in quarantine.





BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 04/16/20 04:14pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Go educate yourself on the concept of contact tracing; there’s plenty of information on how this works.

azdryheat

Tucson, AZ

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Posted: 04/16/20 04:15pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Hospitals have been banned from performing elective surgery in order to free up space and personnel for covid patients. But the patients never appeared in overwhelming numbers. Hospitals are going broke and are laying off doctors, nurses and support personnel. They need to get back to work doing elective surgeries to get that revenue to keep the doors open. There's also a lot of people in pain waiting for knee replacements, etc. Hospitals need to be re-opened so they can get back on their feet financially.


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